Prof. Jake Grumbach's statistical work was used in the New York Times interactive article showing scenarios of mail-in voting using the 2016 election as an example.
While the president claims he’s concerned about rigged elections and stolen votes, Republicans are also worried that mail-in ballots could favor Democrats. A new analysis by Times Opinion suggests that even in an extreme scenario, those fears are unfounded. If the 2016 election between President Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had been run using the universal vote-by-mail, Trump would have still won the presidency, according to the analysis.Only one state, Michigan’s tightly contested race went to Hillary Clinton instead of Trump,adding 16 electoral votes for Democrats. In many other states, though, Trump would have captured even larger victories, as younger right-leaning Americans voted in droves for the Republican candidate.
Such that political tides would have remained unchanged in 2016.
It is impossible to know for sure how a nationwide vote-by-mail election would unfold in 2020, an election year filled to the brim with unprecedented circumstances - both directly due to the simultaneous effects of pandemic and economic recession, as well as the brazen attempts to politicize vote-by-mail by president. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to claim to good faith that protecting voters with all-mail voting would result in landslide victory for democrats.