Submitted by Stephen Dunne
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Please join us on June 2 at 3:30 for an insightful talk on Social Protests and Electoral Authoritarianism in Kazakhstan by visiting scholar Dr. Masaaki Higashijima of the University of Tokyo.
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Speaker: Masaaki Higashijima, University of Tokyo
Date: June 2
Time: 3:30 – 5 :00p.m.
Location: Thomson Hall, Room 317 at the University of Washington
About the Talk
Why do some protests in autocracies attract popular participation while others do not? This paper argues that when opposition elites and the masses have divergent motivations for protesting, anti-regime mobilization struggles to gain momentum. Moreover, this weak elite-mass linkage is further exacerbated when autocrats selectively repress protests led by opposition elites while making concessions to those organized by ordinary citizens. To empirically test these claims, I examine the case of Kazakhstan, where frequent protests remained small in scale until the massive January 2022 demonstrations. An analysis of daily-coded protest data (2018–2021) reveals that protests led by opposition elites predominantly focused on political issues such as human rights, elections, and political prisoners, whereas spontaneous mass protests were primarily driven by economic concerns, including welfare, income, and utilities. A 2021 conjoint experiment further highlights citizens’ underlying preferences on public dissent, showing that respondents were more sympathetic toward protests centered on economic issues rather than political demands. Additionally, an online survey experiment conducted after the January 2022 protests suggests that citizens are more likely to support demonstrations that initially emerged over economic grievances but later expanded to political demands, compared to those that remained focused solely on economic concerns.
Why do some protests in autocracies attract popular participation while others do not? This paper argues that when opposition elites and the masses have divergent motivations for protesting, anti-regime mobilization struggles to gain momentum. Moreover, this weak elite-mass linkage is further exacerbated when autocrats selectively repress protests led by opposition elites while making concessions to those organized by ordinary citizens. To empirically test these claims, I examine the case of Kazakhstan, where frequent protests remained small in scale until the massive January 2022 demonstrations. An analysis of daily-coded protest data (2018–2021) reveals that protests led by opposition elites predominantly focused on political issues such as human rights, elections, and political prisoners, whereas spontaneous mass protests were primarily driven by economic concerns, including welfare, income, and utilities. A 2021 conjoint experiment further highlights citizens’ underlying preferences on public dissent, showing that respondents were more sympathetic toward protests centered on economic issues rather than political demands. Additionally, an online survey experiment conducted after the January 2022 protests suggests that citizens are more likely to support demonstrations that initially emerged over economic grievances but later expanded to political demands, compared to those that remained focused solely on economic concerns.
About the Speaker
Masaaki Higashijima is an Associate Professor of Comparative Politics at the Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo. He is currently affiliated with the Ellison Center for Russian, East European, and Central Asian Studies in the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington. His research interests include comparative political economy, autocratic politics, regime change, and Central Asia. His work has appeared in premier political science journals, such as the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Politics, and World Development. He published his first book, The Dictator's Dilemma at the Ballot Box: Electoral Manipulation, Economic Maneuvering, and Political Order in Autocracies (University of Michigan Press, 2022), which won the Honorable Mention of the ASEEES Ed A Hewett Book Prize. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science at Michigan State University in 2015.
Event Sponsors
The UW Center for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies; the Ellison Center for Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies; The Turkic and Central Eurasian Studies Program in MELC.
From: POLITICAL SCIENCE <polisci@uw.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2025 4:32 PM
Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2025 4:32 PM