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Principled and Pragmatic Exit: Understanding Treaty Withdrawal

Bang-Jensen, Bree (2022). "Principled and Pragmatic Exit: Understanding Treaty Withdrawal"

What leads states to exit from treaties? Is treaty exit simply a reversal of the conditions that lead states to commit to a treaty? What factors increase the likelihood a state will withdraw from a treaty and what treaties are they most likely to leave? In this dissertation,I identify broad patterns in state withdrawal from international agreements and theorize that there are two distinct patterns of exit, pragmatic and principled. State proclivity to engage in either pattern of exit is influenced by the interaction of state specific factors, such as diffuse political trust, and treaty legalization. I test this theory through case studies, elite interviews, analysis of speeches and press statements, supervised machine learning with treaty text as data, survival models, and regressions....

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