POL S 407 A: International Conflict

POLS 407: INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

MW, 10-1120, Gowen 201

Prof. Kier

Gowen 129, office hrs: Mon., 1130-1230 & by appointment

Teaching Assistants:

Jessica Sciarone, AA (9:30) & AB (10:30); office hrs.: Mon., 1:00-3:00, https://washington.zoom.us/j/92101239647

Bobby Maxwell, AC (11:30) & AD (12:30); office hrs.: Thurs., 2:00-4:00, Gowen 34   

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War is a central feature of international politics. After an overview of the development of modern warfare, we’ll examine the causes of interstate war. Is war inevitable given the structure of the international system? Or can changes in beliefs affect its likelihood? Does the spread of democracies eliminate the security dilemma? What role does the military play in the potential for armed conflict? Might misperceptions lead countries into wars that no one intended to start? We’ll examine these questions through a focus on World War I and World War II, as well as frequent references to the war in Ukraine. The course concludes with an examination of the cause of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. 

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The University recommends wearing a high-quality mask inside UW facilities where they aren’t otherwise required, and masks are strongly recommended the first two weeks of the quarter.

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Readings: Most of the readings are available on Canvas under “Files.” The book (Michael Howard, War in European History, 1976) is available online through the UW library. However, this version is available to only three students at a time so you may wish to read the copy on reserve at Odegaard or purchase a copy. Readings questions are available on Canvas under "Files" to guide your reading and to help you take notes.

Daily reading of the New York Times (or other national news source) is required. The NYT digital edition is available for free to all UW students https://nytimesineducation.com/access-nyt/  UW students also have free access to the Wall Street Journal: WSJ.com/ActivateUW

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Requirements: Two exams (30% each); research paper (30%); and section (10%). Participation in lecture can also positively affect your final grade.

The exams will be closed-book and on-campus.  If you think you might have Covid, you must stay home and arrange a make-up. Otherwise, no make-ups without a written excuse from a recognized authority. Attempts at a fait accompli (“already bought my ticket”) will fail. Students must complete all requirements. For additional information on courses, grading, academic conduct, and university policies, see https://www.polisci.washington.edu/department-and-university-policies 

You are expected to go to section well prepared, and to actively participate in the discussions. Section will focus on applying course themes to current events, developing your research papers, and discussing some of the course readings. Section will not cover all the readings so it is important to use the reading questions to guide your reading and to help you take notes. If you are unable to attend a section, submit a 350-550 word essay within a week of the missed section that discusses the week’s readings.

The research paper is discussed below.

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Accommodations:  Contact the Disability Resources office to request accommodation. 448 Schmitz Hall, 543-8924 (voice), 543-8925 (TTY), 616-8379 (fax), uwdss@uw.edu. With a letter from them, we can easily arrange accommodations.

Washington state law requires that UW develop a policy for accommodation of student absences or significant hardship due to reasons of faith or conscience, or for organized religious activities. The UW’s policy, including more information about how to request an accommodation, is available at Religious Accommodations Policy https://registrar.washington.edu/staffandfaculty/religious-accommodation.... Accommodations must be requested within the first two weeks of this course using the Religious Accommodations Request form: https://registrar.washington.edu/students/religious-accommodations-request/

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Grading Policy To request a re-grading of your work (outside of tabulation errors):

1. Within a week of receiving your exam, give your TA your work and a typed statement of no more than one page that explains why you believe the grade should be altered. This must be about the substance of your work, not the effort you put into the class.
2. Your TA will review and return your materials within a week.
3. If you’re still dissatisfied, your TA will pass the materials to Kier for her evaluation.

Research Paper on the Causes of War

This course focuses on explanations for the outbreak of interstate war. The research paper provides an opportunity to apply this knowledge to a war of your choosing. You will test how one explanation for war stands up against the historical record.

The paper has three purposes. First, it will sharpen your analytical skills and your ability to use evidence to test an argument. Second, it will broaden your substantive knowledge and allow you to pursue regional or historical interests. Third, it will improve your research and writing skills.

Choosing a war

We encourage you to speak with us about your topic, but here’s a list of possible interstate wars. We recommend against choosing an internal war, which the class does not explore. 

War of 1812; Russo-Turkish (1828); Mexican-American (1846); First Schleswig-Holstein (1848); Platine War (1851); Crimean War (1853); Second Schleswig War (1864); Franco-Prussian (1870); Sino-French War (1885); Sino-Japanese (1894-95), Spanish-American (1898), Russo-Japanese (1904-05), Italo-Turkish (1911-12); Russo-Finnish (1939); Soviet-Japanese border conflict (1938-1939), Korean (1950-53), Sino-Indian (1962), Indo-Pakistani (1965); Vietnam (1965); Six Day (1967); Sino-Soviet border conflict (1969); Indo-Pakistani (1971); Yom Kippur (1973), Turco-Cypriot (1974); Sino-Vietnamese (1979); Iran-Iraq (1980), Falklands (1982); Chad-Libya (1987), Iraq-Kuwait (1990), Armenia-Azerbaijan (1992), Eritrea-Ethiopia (1998); Kargil War (1999); Russian-Georgia (2008); Russo-Ukrainian (2014-); Nagorno-Karabakh (2020); China–India skirmishes (2020-21).

Writing your paper topic (due Feb. 16)

 Your paper topic assignment should answer four questions:

1. What's your case? (Be specific).  
2. What's your puzzle? ("Why did [State A] fight [State B]?")
3. What explanation are you testing (e.g., polarity, security dilemma, power transition,  nationalism, diversionary war, offense bias, military preferences, misperception, or beliefs). Choose one explanation that is plausible given your preliminary reading of the case.
4. What 5-6 books and articles have you collected? These should not be Wikipedia or blog posts. Use the library search engines to find books and articles.

Finding sources

Your paper should cite 10-12 sources. Be careful in your use of the web: do not rely on blogs or other unfiltered sources. Use the UW library website to access journal and newspaper articles. See https://guides.lib.uw.edu/research/faq/scholarly for instructions on how to access peer-reviewed journals.

We encourage you to consult reference librarians to ensure that you take full advantage of the library’s search engines. You can email Emily Keller, the Political Science and Public Policy Librarian, for an appointment. She will introduce you to, or refresh your knowledge of, search engines, and help you find books and articles on your topic. emkeller@uw.edu

Structuring your paper

We’ll discuss the paper in lecture and section, but in should include four parts.

I.  Introduction (one short paragraph). What war are you examining? What explanation are you testing? (Recall that you are testing one plausible explanation). What is your overall conclusion?

II. Setting the scene (max: ½ page). When did the war occur? Who are the major players and what are the major issues?

III. Testing the explanation (8-10 pages).

A.  Present the key parts of the explanation that you are testing. Discuss the explanation’s assumptions; who or what it identifies as the crucial actors or variables; and detail its causal argument about the causes of war. Also identify the argument’s empirical implications: what do you expect to see/not expect to see if it is correct?

B. Test the argument against empirical evidence.

1. 1. 1. Discuss evidence that supports the explanation
      2. Discuss evidence that challenges it 

Your task is not to “prove” that your argument is correct. To the contrary, it is important that you demonstrate that you know how to use evidence to test an argument, which means also identifying disconfirming evidence. Evidence that challenges your argument is as important as evidence that confirms it. Your paper should include both.

C. Assess the evidence. What does the evidence say about the explanation that you are testing? What does it indicate about the plausibility of one of the other explanations for war discussed in class?

IV. Conclusion (max: ½ page). Evaluate your case study: what does it say about the causes of war?  Do you think another explanation is more plausible?

Presenting your research  (March 10 poster session)

You will present your research as a “poster” in section on March 10.   The session is designed to be a collaborative and low-stakes opportunity to share your research, receive feedback from your colleagues, and to provide them with assistance on theirs.  You can then incorporate the feedback and suggestions in your final paper (due March 14).

For instructions on how to prepare your poster, see “poster guidelines” on Canvas under “Files.” There is also a suggested “poster template” that you might wish to use.  

Writing well 

Your papers should be 2,500-3000 words not including bibliography. Put word count on the first page. Your paper should include citations and a bibliography. To ensure the correct formatting of each, see

http://depts.washington.edu/pswrite/Handouts/CitingPrintSources.pdf 

Your paper must be well written and carefully edited (and will be assessed on content and style). An indispensable guide to writing is Strunk & White’s, Elements of Style. You may wish to exchange your paper with a colleague for comments on your argument and assistance with your writing. Even the most accomplished authors profit from editorial feedback.

See the “Criteria for Grading Research Papers” posted on Canvas for a discussion of how your paper will be assessed.

You will submit your exams and research paper through SimCheck, an educational tool that identifies plagiarism. It indicates the amount of original text and whether material that you quote, paraphrase, summarize, or use from another source is appropriately referenced. If you are uncertain about the meaning of plagiarism and how to avoid it, see:  http://depts.washington.edu/pswrite/plag.html

Important due dates

Feb. 16:           Topic selection: Submit on Canvas by 9am. See instructions above. Not graded, but late submission will lower final paper grade .2 pts. for each day.

March 10:       Poster session: Present findings in section (or lose .5 pts. on final paper). 

March 14:       Final paper: Submit on Canvas by 1pm. Late papers lose .5 pts. for each day. 

War through the Movies

In addition to the films recommended on the syllabus, we encourage you to view some of the following. Some are wartime Hollywood propaganda films (e.g., The Green Berets); some are anti-war movies (e.g., All Quiet on the Western Front). None can replace a close reading of history and an understanding of theory, and most should be recognized for what they are: fiction. But even if films are less useful in describing the political, social, and economic context, they can depict the heroic, tragic, and morally ambiguous aspects of war. 

American Civil War: Glory (1989) African-American volunteer regiment from Massachusetts; Gettysburg (1993) depicts this crucial battle.

South African War: Breaker Morant (1980) explores the morality of attacks on civilians.

World War I: All Quiet on the Western Front (1930) adaptation of German anti-war novel; Gallipoli (1981) one of WWI’s great disasters - Australian soldiers decimated in trying to invade Turkey; La Grande Illusion (1937) Renoir's film about WWI’s effects, as reflected in the lives of French POWs and their German warden; Paths of Glory, Kubrick (1957) French soldiers wrongfully court-martialed; They shall not grow old (2018) critically-acclaimed documentary remasters original WWI filming; 1917 (2019) Two British soldiers race to deliver a message that could save 1,600 British soldiers.

World War II:  Stalingrad, German anti-war drama released to coincide with it 50th anniversary; Slaughterhouse Five (1972) Vonnegut's story about a man who becomes "unstuck in time" after witnessing Dresden’s firebombing; Catch 22 (1970) satire about an aviator trying to escape the war; The Best Years of Our Lives (1946) three servicemen return home and adjust to civilian life; Bridge over the River Quai (1957) true story of POWs forced to build the Bangkok-Rangoon railway bridge; Why We Fight, Capra (1940s) propaganda series made during the war; Das Boot (1981) heroic efforts of a German U-boat captain and crew; Days of Glory/Indigènes (2006) North African soldiers who enlist to free France; Dunkirk (2017) dramatic depiction of the evacuation; A Bridge Too Far (1977) about Operation Market Garden; Greyhound (2020) depicts escort destroyer group defending Allied convoy.

Korean War: M*A*S*H (1970) depiction of medical unit in Korea that satirizes Vietnam; Pork Chop Hill, (1959); The Manchurian Candidate (1962) on the consequences of brainwashing.

Vietnam: Full Metal Jacket, Kubrick (1987) Marines in boot camp and Vietnam prior to the Tet Offensive; Hearts and Minds, Davis (1974) Academy Award for best documentary; The Green Berets (1968) John Wayne’s pro-Vietnam depiction; Platoon, Oliver Stone’s (1986) depiction based on his experience as an infantryman; Apocalypse Now, Coppola (1979) epic vision of war’s madness, loosely based on Joseph Conrad's novel Heart of Darkness; Born on the 4th of July (1989) Ron Kovic becomes an anti-war activist after feeling betrayed by the country he fought for; The Anderson Platoon (1967) Academy Award - focuses on daily life of a grunt; The Deer Hunter (1978) steelworkers who found only horror and death in Vietnam; The Killing Fields (1984) fall of Cambodia and the American evacuation; Fog of War (2003) documentary about McNamara, Secretary of Defense during Vietnam; Da 5 Bloods (2020) Black vets return to Vietnam to find the remains of their squad leader and the fortune he helped to hide.

Yugoslavia: Before the Rain; Welcome to Sarajevo

Nuclear war: Dr. Strangelove, Kubrick’s (1964) political satire of Cold War nuclear strategy; On the Beach (1959) depicts the aftermath of a nuclear war.

Afghanistan and Iraq: Restrepo (2010) documentary about U.S. platoon in one of deadliest valleys in Afghanistan; The Hurt Locker (2008) follows a War Explosive Ordnance disposal team in Iraq.

International Conflict

I. State, Society, & the Development of Modern Warfare

A. From dynastic to Napoleonic warfare  

B. Total war: World War I & World War II

II. Causes of War (with a focus on World War I & World War II)

A. International system

1. 1. 1. polarity
      2. power transitions
      3. security dilemma

B. State

1. 1. 1. nationalism
      2. diversionary 
      3. regime type

C. Military   

1. 1. 1. bureaucratic interests
      2. offense, defense, and stability

D. Individual

1. 1. 1. misperceptions
      2. beliefs

III. Contemporary Case: War in Iraq, 2003

1.  Wed., Jan. 4: Introduction

2.  Mon., Jan. 9: The Development of Modern Warfare

Michael Howard, War in European History, chaps. 4-5, pp. 54-93.

“Iraqis have been exposed to the effects of burn pits for more than 10 years,” Morning Edition (NPR), August 9, 2022.

3.  Wed., Jan. 11: The Age of Total War: World War I

Michael Howard, War in European History, chaps. 6-7, pp. 95-135.

Wilfred Owen, "Dulce et Decorum Est," 1918. Read or listen: https://www.warpoetry.uk/dulce-et-decorum-est

recommended: A global interactive guide to WWI  https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2014/jul/23/a-global-gu...

recommended movie: All Quiet on the Western Front. The trailer:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grapXipP3fM

Mon., Jan. 16:   Martin Luther King Jr. Day – no class

4.  Wed., Jan 18: The Age of Total War: World War II

Edward H. Bonekemper, The Myth of the Lost Cause: Why the South Fought the Civil War and Why the North Won. Washington, DC: Regnery 2015, chap. 1 & excerpts from Chap. 3: pp. 31-51, 56-59,  66-95.

recommended movie: Days of Glory (Indigènes). The trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aip0EjFwWr4

5.  Mon., Jan. 23:  The International System: Polarity

Kenneth Waltz, "The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory," in Rotberg & Rabb, The Origin & Prevention of Major Wars, pp. 39-51 (pp. 48-51 not required - stop at p.48 "keeping wars cold”; start again at p.51 "wars, hot and cold") 

Margaret MacMaillan, “Which Past Is Prologue? Heeding the Right Warnings From History,” Foreign Affairs, 99, 5, Sept.-Oct. 2020.  

6.  Wed., Jan 25: The International System: Power Transitions

The White House, “Prevent our Enemies from Threatening Us, Our Allies, and Our Friends with Weapons of Mass Destruction,” Section V of The National Security Strategy of the USA (Sept. 2002).

David E. Sanger, “Beating them to the prewar: The ‘anticipatory self-defense’ talk,” NYT (Sept. 28, 2002).

Hal Brands, “The Dangers of China’s Decline,” Foreign Policy, April 2022. 

7.  Mon., Jan 30: The International System: The Security Dilemma

David Cloud & Jay Solomon, “How U.S., North Korea turned broken deals into a standoff,” Wall Street Journal (March 4, 2003).

Steven Lee Myers, “Bush backs Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, despite Putin’s objections,” NYT (April, 2, 2008).

John J. Mearsheimer, “Getting Ukraine Wrong,” NYT (March 13, 2014).

8.  Wed., Feb. 1: The State: Nationalism

Paul T. Miller, “How World War III Could Start in Latvia,” Foreign Policy (Nov. 16, 2016).

James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman, “How the U.S. Could Sleepwalk into a War with China,” Time, March 9, 2021. 

Vladimir Putin, excerpt from ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” July 12, 2021. If interested in the article, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

recommended: Brett Forrest, “Russia-Ukraine Conflict Lies in the Bones of an 11th-Century Prince,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 1, 2022.

9.  Mon., Feb. 6:  The State: Diversionary

Thomas Erdbrink, “Long divided, Iran unites against Trump and the Saudis in a nationalist fervor,” NYT, Nov. 26, 2017.

Aron Leon, “Could Putin Launch Another Invasion?” Politico (opinion), March 15, 2021.

Mark Landler, “Britain Pursues More Muscular Role in Standoff With Russia on Ukraine,” NYT, Jan. 23, 2022.

Steven Erlanger, “Elections Approaching, Erdogan Raises the Heat Again With Greece,” NYT, Oct. 16, 2022.

recommended movie: Wag the Dog (1997). The trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNo0BicRM8k

10.  Wed., Feb 8: First exam - bring blue book 

* research paper discussion in section on Feb 10 *

Carefully read the syllabus discussion prior to section.

11.  Mon., Feb. 13: The State: Regime Type

Christopher Layne, “Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace,” in Karen Mingst and Jack Snyder, eds., Essential Readings in World Politics (Norton, 2001).

David Plotz, “Greens Peace,” New York Times Magazine (June 4, 2000).

Peter Beaumont, “Lawrence Freedman: ‘Autocracies tend to make catastrophic decisions. That’s the case with Putin,’ The Guardian, Sept. 17, 2022. 

12.  Wed., Feb., 15: The Military: Bureaucratic Interests

Stephen Van Evera, “The Cult of the Offensive & the Origins of the First World War," International Security (summer 1984): 58-107.

* submit paper topic on Canvas by 9am on Thurs., Feb 16 *

Mon., Feb. 20: President’s day, no class.  

13.  Wed, Feb. 22:  The Military: Offense-Defense and Stability

Jonathan G. Panter, “Will Americans Die for Freedom of Navigation? The Navy’s favorite tool in Asia is deeply flawed.” Foreign Policy, April 6, 2021.

Chris Horton, “Airliners have become China’s newest means of pressuring Taiwan,” NYT (Jan. 19, 2018).

14.  Mon., Feb. 27:  The Individual: Misperceptions

Richard Fontain and Vance Serchuk, “Pick your Prism: How foreign policy makers view pivotal years says a great deal about how they act in 2014” (excerpt), Politico, Nov. 28, 2014.

Philip Oltermann, “Don’t compare Ukraine invasion to first world war, says ‘Sleepwalkers’ historian,” The Guardian, June 26, 2022. 

Paul Sonne, Ellen Nakashima, Shane Harris and John Hudson, “Hubris and isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine,” Washington Post, April 11, 2022.

recommended movie: Fog of War (2003). The trailer:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0Sjq-i0bTI

15.  Wed., March 1: The Individual: Beliefs

Margaret Mead, "Warfare Is Only an Invention - Not a Biological Necessity," ASIA (1940).  

Lee Myers, “In Putin’s Syria intervention, Fear of a Weak Government hand,” NYT (Oct. 4, 2015).

Anton Troianovski,  Ivan Nechepurenko and Valerie Hopkins, “How the Kremlin is Militarizing Russian Society,” NYT, Dec. 21, 2021.  

16.  Mon., March 6: The War in Iraq, 2003

Background: “War in Iraq,” in Encyclopedia Britannica, 2019.  

Colin Powell, “We reserve our sovereign right to take military action,” (excerpt from a speech at the World Economic Forum), NYT (Jan. 27, 2003); and George W. Bush, “Domestic security,” “Disarming Iraq,” and “The military,” (excerpts from the State of the Union), NYT (Jan. 28, 2003).

Jeffrey Record, “The Neoconservative Vision and 9/11,” in Dark Victory: America's Second War against Iraq, (Annapolis, Md., Naval Institute Press, 2004), pp. 17-29.

recommended movie: The Hurt Locker. The trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIbFvqFYRT4

17.  Wed., March 8: Second Exam; bring blue book.

* Friday, March 10 - poster session in section *

Present findings from research paper as a poster (or lose .5 pts. on final paper). See “Poster Session Guidelines” on Canvas under "Files”. There is also a suggested “poster template” that might be useful.

Tues., March 14:  Research paper due by 1pm; submit on Canvas

                            Note instructions above on length and formatting.